Option Strategy – High Premium

when the ATM Premium is high then consider selling the ATM and buying hedge

for example

DIXON ATM Premium is very high then sell both Call and Put and then buy call and put. this is good strategy eventually the call put premium will be lost and the strategy can offer 1 to 5

Daily Market Analysis 24-Oct-24

Income Futures

Maruti – buy future with selling 2 lot option – doing well

JK CEMENT – Buy – doing well

Sell High Future

DIXON Sell – Super uptrend , betting for correction up to daily 50 SMA

MCX – Good uptrend, hoping for correction till 50SMA

Trend – in Profit

Position with Option Hedge

Asian Paints – 200 SMA support hoping to rise in next 3 month – Position Safe

Apollo Tyres – 200 SMA Support, doing ok

IRCTC – Hold, keep looking for best hedge

Pair Trading

HDFC and ICICI Bank pair is with protected hedge so no issue. the icici hedge is for Nov for keep checking hedge for December.

RSI < 20 Option Buy

Malappuram finance – doing well, hold till expiry

Tata Consumer – doing well, hold till expiry

Nifty Trades

  1. Oct future buy – book 20k profit in nifty 25k put for oct and bought nifty 24450 put Nov series for hedge
  2. Dec sell with 5 lot income is working well
  3. Nov buy with 5 lot income is working well as well

Notes

  1. the 3 month option is available for many stocks and this is good to trade such stock with future and hedge

The Dangers of Storytelling in Investing: How to Avoid the Narrative Fallacy

The Dangers of Storytelling in Investing: How to Avoid the Narrative Fallacy

Imagine explaining why a leaf fell from a tree at 3:42 PM on a Tuesday.

Was it the wind? The age of the leaf? A butterfly flapping its wings in Kashmir?

In reality, it was most likely a combination of multiple factors, many too small for us to even notice.

Well, every movement in the stock market is like that leaf, but infinitely more complex. However, here we have a story for every leaf falling.

Think about a financial news headline you read recently. “Nifty 50, Sensex at All-Time High: What to Expect from Indian Stock Market on September 25” or “Market Plunges Amid Russia-Ukraine Tensions.”

Sound familiar? These attention-grabbing headlines give us neat explanations for the complex movements of the market. And we do believe them.

We believe them because doing so gives us comfort. Comfort from thinking that we understand why things happen in finance and investing. Comfort from believing that we are in control and can predict the future.

We are born storytellers. Stories captivate us. Our innate tendency is to seek meaning, draw patterns, and make sense of the confusion around us. It is a good quality of being human. However, the same instinct that makes us good storytellers may also deceive us when it comes to investing.

Nassim Taleb calls it a “narrative fallacy” in his book ‘Black Swan.’

He explains that while these stories often seem to make sense in hindsight, they are usually simplistic and fall short of conveying the actual complexity of the financial markets. More importantly, they frequently downplay the significance of luck and chance.

Many events that occur in the stock market – including the daily stock price movements – result from multiple factors, many of which cannot be easily predicted or explained. If we create stories around them, we risk overestimating our ability to understand the past and predict the future.

Taleb wrote in his book –

The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or equivalently, forcing a logical link, an arrow of relationship, upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more readily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding. [. . .] We like stories, we like to summarize, and we like to simplify, i.e., to reduce the dimension of matters. [. . .] The fallacy is associated with our vulnerability to overinterpretation and our predilection for compact stories over raw truths.

Daniel Kahneman wrote in ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ –

Flawed stories of the past shape our views of the world and our expectations for the future. Narrative fallacies arise inevitably from our continuous attempt to make sense of the world. The explanatory stories that people find compelling are simple; are concrete rather than abstract; assign a larger role to talent, stupidity, and intentions than to luck; and focus on a few striking events that happened rather than on the countless events that failed to happen. Any recent salient event is a candidate to become the kernel of a causal narrative

The Danger of Believing Our Own Stories

Once we believe we understand why something happened, we are more likely to assume that we can predict what will happen next. If we think a stock rose because of a company’s innovative product, we might feel confident that its price will continue to increase as the company expands.

However, markets are notoriously unpredictable, so even a seemingly apparent cause-and-effect link could be a mirage.

Many investors are shocked by unexpected outcomes because they base their decisions on stories that are too simple, having been lulled into a false sense of security by their knowledge of past events.

Confirmation bias, or our tendency to ignore evidence that contradicts our preconceived notions in favour of information that confirms them, is also strongly connected to the narrative fallacy.

When you buy a stock, and it falls after that, your first reaction is to tell yourself, “That’s just a temporary fall! I know the stock is very good and will do well over time.” This reasoning is acceptable if you are holding on to a fundamentally sound business. But if you realise that you have made a mistake buying that business and don’t want to sell out at a loss, you look out for reasons validating your thoughts.

You look for reasons that confirm your decision that the stock is good. You check out websites and message boards, spend time on business channels, or call your broker to get his view. And even before you are about to get that second opinion, you expect it will confirm your beliefs. If that isn’t the case, you look to another person’s views that will validate your decision. In effect, this cycle repeats till the time you lose hope. And then you finally sell the stock at a huge loss!

Another example. If you believe that green energy or defence stocks will continue to rise due to greater demand in the sectors, you might disregard warning signs about overvaluation or broader market trends that suggest a downturn. This selective memory can distort your investment process and increase your exposure to risk.

Anyways, perhaps the most dangerous aspect of the narrative fallacy is that it blinds us to the role of randomness in financial markets. We frequently overlook the extent to which historical events were influenced by chance when we construct flawlessly plausible explanations for them.

Taleb warns that even the most successful investors may have been lucky in the past, but their successes get attributed to skill in the stories we tell ourselves.

This excessive reliance on narratives can lead to disastrous results when luck eventually runs out.

How to Break Free from the Narrative Trap

It is difficult. Why? Because as I mentioned earlier, we are natural tellers and believers of stories.

However, recognising the narrative fallacy and its dangers is a good first step toward avoiding it.

One way to do that is to appreciate and accept that there is something called as ‘uncertainty’ – that we do not know most of how the world and markets will move in the future.

It is thus essential to acknowledge the role of randomness and avoid placing too much faith in any one explanation for market movements. When we accept that we cannot always know what will happen next, we can approach investing with more humility and caution.

Diversification is another defence against the unpredictability of the markets. You can lessen your exposure to any one event or story by spreading your investments across various assets and businesses. This reduces the danger of placing an excessive amount of money on a single explanation or story.

Not to forget the importance we must put on the process than the outcome. Rather than focusing on whether a particular investment was successful, we should focus on whether our decision-making process was sound.

Did we base our investment on sound research and long-term strategy, or were we swayed by a compelling story?

It’s about playing the long game, not winning every hand.

Letting go of simple narratives doesn’t make the world of investing less interesting. If anything, it becomes more fascinating.

You start to appreciate that markets are like a complex adaptive system and are moved by countless factors than the ‘one’ you hear on business media. You develop a healthy respect for the role of chance. And paradoxically, by accepting that you can’t predict everything, you become a wiser, more resilient investor.

The goal of knowing about narrative fallacy is not to stop enjoying stories. It’s to recognize them for what they are – simplified versions of a complex reality.

In investing, as in life, the truth is often messier, more nuanced, and far more interesting than any single story can capture. And the best investors are not the ones who can tell the most compelling stories, but those who can walk through the unpredictability and volatility of the market with patience, intelligence, and a good dose of scepticism.

And that, my friend, is a story worth striving for.

April 2024

08-April-24

Wipro  – has new CEO Srinivas Pallia – he should be turning Wipro around. can the Wipro rebound

Import of electronic components Declines

09-April-24

ITC Hotels Plans to add 70 Properties in Five Years (Boom in Hospitality Sector)

Airtel Jio continue to have fierce Competition

Auto Continue to be bullish

10 April 2024

RIL , 2 more get Green light to Dock at Kandla

https://indiaai.gov.in/news/cabinet-approves-india-ai-mission-at-an-outlay-of-rs-10-372-crore

AI Compute GPU is next big game play

one of he GPU Providers https://yotta.com/

EV Retail Sales Grow across segments

Exercise can protect your brain

 

 

 

 

Sitting , Walking , Running Cycling

Give me comparison in table that what happens when we are sitting in 
body vs when we are sleeping vs walking vs when we are running vs when we are cycling. 
in terms of blood flow, heart performance, liver, kidney, joins or anything else
Activity Blood Flow (L/min) Heart Rate (bpm) Kidney Filtration Rate (mL/min) Joint Impact Liver Function
Sitting 0.5-1.0 60-70 800-1000 Increased pressure on lower back and buttocks Reduced
Sleeping 0.7-1.2 60-80 600-800 Minimal Improved
Walking (3 mph) 2.0-3.0 90-110 1000-1200 Low impact Improved
Running (6 mph) 4.0-6.0 120-170 1200-1500 High impact on knees, ankles, hips Highly improved
Cycling (moderate) 2.5-4.0 100-140 1100-1300 Low impact (stress on knees if improper form) Improved

 

 

Explanation:

  • Blood Flow: Sitting restricts blood flow, especially to the legs. Walking increases blood flow, particularly in the legs. Running significantly increases blood flow throughout the body. Cycling increases blood flow, especially in the legs, but not quite as much as running.
  • Heart Performance: Sitting leads to a slow heart rate. Walking increases heart rate moderately. Running pushes your heart rate to its highest level during these activities. Cycling increases heart rate moderately to highly, depending on intensity.
  • Kidneys: Sitting can reduce kidney function due to decreased blood flow. Walking improves kidney function by increasing blood flow and waste removal. Running further improves kidney function. Cycling also improves kidney function, similar to walking.
  • Joints: Sitting puts constant pressure on some joints, like the lower back. Walking is low impact on most joints. Running is high impact, putting stress on knees, ankles, and hips. Cycling is low impact on most joints, but improper form can stress the knees.

My Day Routine

Key Routine:

  1. Green Tea
  2. no Sugar till 2pm
  3. very less good till 2pm
  4. Workout is very important every day(walk, cycle, and resistance twice a day)

 

Concepts

  1. Avoid Sugar in the Morning or because the glucose in the body spikes and then comes down, craving for more sugar
  2. Empty stomach workout and then skip breakfast by 2 hours and then eat moderately and during fasting drink Green tea
  3.  Meditation makes the brain anti ageing and it is must

 

Walk to Run – workout Options

i generally walk for 1 hour covering 5 km, further . please give me 4 week plan to : 1. increase my pace to 7 2. include HIIT during walk 3. during walk run for 1 min – first week 4. during walk run for 2 min – second week 5. during walk run for 3 min – Third week 6. during walk run for 4 min – Fourth week 7. during walk run for 5 min – Fifth week after 4 weeks i shall ask for further plan

4-Week Walking Plan to Increase Pace and Include HIIT:

This plan incorporates your goals of gradually increasing walking pace, incorporating HIIT (High-Intensity Interval Training), and introducing short running intervals.

Disclaimer: This is a general guideline. Always consult a doctor before starting any new exercise program, especially if you have any underlying health conditions.

Key:

  • WU: Warm-up (5-10 minutes of light walking)
  • CD: Cool-down (5-10 minutes of light walking)
  • Easy Pace: Comfortable walking pace (around 5 km/h)
  • Brisk Pace: Faster walking pace where you can still hold a conversation (around 6-7 km/h)
  • Run: Maintain a comfortable running pace (can be slightly slower than your usual running pace)

Week 1:

  • Day 1: WU – 30 min Easy Pace – 1 min Run – 2 min Easy Pace – CD
  • Day 2: Rest or light activity (yoga, stretching)
  • Day 3: WU – 30 min Easy Pace – 1 min Run – 2 min Easy Pace – 1 min Run – 2 min Easy Pace – CD
  • Day 4: Rest or light activity
  • Day 5: WU – 35 min Brisk Pace – CD

Week 2:

  • Day 1: WU – 30 min Easy Pace – 2 min Run – 2 min Easy Pace – CD
  • Day 2: Rest or light activity
  • Day 3: WU – 30 min Easy Pace – 2 min Run – 2 min Easy Pace – 2 min Run – 2 min Easy Pace – CD
  • Day 4: Rest or light activity
  • Day 5: WU – 40 min Brisk Pace – CD

Week 3:

  • Day 1: WU – 30 min Easy Pace – 3 min Run – 2 min Easy Pace – CD
  • Day 2: Rest or light activity
  • Day 3: WU – 30 min Easy Pace – 2 min Run – 2 min Easy Pace – 3 min Run – 2 min Easy Pace – CD
  • Day 4: Rest or light activity
  • Day 5: WU – 45 min Brisk Pace – CD

Week 4:

  • Day 1: WU – 30 min Easy Pace – 4 min Run – 2 min Easy Pace – CD
  • Day 2: Rest or light activity
  • Day 3: WU – 30 min Easy Pace – 2 min Run – 2 min Easy Pace – 4 min Run – 2 min Easy Pace – CD
  • Day 4: Rest or light activity
  • Day 5: WU – 50 min Brisk Pace – CD

Progression:

  • This plan gradually increases the running duration each week while maintaining a focus on building your base walking pace.
  • Listen to your body: Adjust the intensity or duration of the workout if needed. Take rest days when required.

Additional Tips:

  • Focus on proper form: Maintain good posture while walking and running.
  • Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of water before, during, and after your workout.
  • Incorporate strength training: Include 2-3 sessions of bodyweight exercises or light weights per week to improve overall fitness.

After completing this 4-week plan, consult with a doctor or certified personal trainer to discuss further progression based on your fitness level and goals. They can help you design a safe and effective plan to keep challenging yourself and reach your desired pace.

can you give me typical 30 minute HIIT program (excluding warm up and cool down) that will improve my running strength

Here’s a sample 30-minute HIIT program designed to improve running strength, excluding warm-up and cool-down:

Structure:

  • This workout follows a format of alternating high-intensity intervals with active recovery periods.
  • High-intensity intervals: Push yourself to near-maximal effort for a set duration. This could involve sprinting, jumping exercises, or hill repeats.
  • Active recovery: Maintain light movement to keep your heart rate elevated but allow for some recovery. This could be brisk walking, jogging at a slow pace, or jumping jacks at a lower intensity.

Sample Workout:

  • Round 1:
    • High-intensity: 30 seconds uphill sprint (if outdoors) or fast running on a treadmill.
    • Active recovery: 60 seconds of brisk walking or jogging.
  • Round 2:
    • High-intensity: 45 seconds of jumping lunges (alternate legs).
    • Active recovery: 45 seconds of walking high knees.
  • Round 3:
    • High-intensity: 30 seconds of squat jumps.
    • Active recovery: 60 seconds of walking with arm circles.
  • Round 4:
    • High-intensity: 45 seconds of lateral shuffles (sideways movement).
    • Active recovery: 45 seconds of walking butt kicks.
  • Round 5:
    • High-intensity: 30 seconds of mountain climbers (alternate bringing knees to chest).
    • Active recovery: 60 seconds of walking with dynamic stretches (arm swings, leg swings).

Repeat this entire circuit 3 times for a total of 30 minutes.

Important Notes:

  • Adjust the intensity: This is a general guideline. You can adjust the intensity of the high-intensity intervals based on your fitness level. Beginners may start with a slower pace or shorter durations, gradually increasing as they get stronger.
  • Listen to your body: Take rest days when needed and don’t push yourself to the point of pain.
  • Focus on form: Maintain proper form throughout the exercises to avoid injury.

Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered medical advice. Always consult with a healthcare professional before starting any new exercise program, especially if you have any underlying health conditions.

Additional Resources:

    • You can find numerous variations of HIIT workouts online and in fitness apps. Look for programs specifically designed for improving running strength.
    • Consider consulting with a certified personal trainer who can create a personalized HIIT program tailored to your specific needs and goals.